Product Thinking: Assumptions and Risks

Types of Risk

We have a problem statement and metrics. Before we build anything, we need to ask: what could go wrong, and what's the cheapest way to find out? For this, we have to look at three types of risk every digital product faces.

Four Stages of De-risking

Products typically move through four stages: proof of concept, proof of value, scale, and maturity. You don't hand users a finished car, you give them a skateboard first, then a scooter, a bicycle, and so on. At every stage they have something functional. At every stage, you're learning and scaling what worked.

De-risking Strategies

To address market risk: get your product in front of real users as early as possible. Watch what they do, not just what they say. The Singapore health appointment booking system started as a FormSG form feeding into an Excel sheet. This is not scalable, but it was the lowest-cost way to validate the approach. An A/B test showed zero bookings from the control group versus 24 from the treatment group, with users sharing the link unprompted. One variable. Clear result.

To address technical risk: start small. A proof of concept doesn't need to be scalable, it just needs to be testable. The goal is to find out whether the solution works before committing to building it properly.

To address team risk: structure for speed, focus, and flexibility, with policy, ops, and tech expertise in one room, and clear accountability for every role.